ARKA-AIF · ANALYTICS

Arka AI Factory Infrastructure

R² 0.785Residual 21.5%11 factors15 holdingsCross-check 98.7%

// WEEKLY SNAPSHOT · 2026-06-10 → 2026-06-16 (5 trading days)

A strong week — Market and semis carried it, but stock-picking gave back some of the gains.

The book added about +5.2% this week. Our factor tilts actually pointed higher, predicting +8.8% — being long the market and semiconductors added the most — but name-specific losses trimmed roughly 3.6% against a backdrop of the SpaceX IPO and easing US-Iran tensions. Bottom line: the factor bets worked; stock-picking, not positioning, capped the upside.

Weekly return

+5.2%

Top factor adder

Market +5.1%

Top factor drag

Size & Liquidity -1.7%

Stock-picking shareⓘ

29%

grounded: passreproduced: passreviewed: pass7 metrics

Events this week

2026-06-11 SpaceX priced its IPO at $135/share, raising about $75B and valuing the company at roughly $1.77T.[1][2][3]
2026-06-12 SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq under SPCX; shares rallied on debut and pushed the company above a $2T market value.[1][2][3]
2026-06-16 SpaceX (SPCX) current intraday reference: last trade about $208/share; market cap about $2.74T; shares are roughly 54% above the $135 IPO price.[1][2][3]
2026-06-14 The U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary peace framework to end the war, with a formal signing expected in Switzerland.[1][2][3]
2026-06-15 The U.S.-Iran framework included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and deferring nuclear-program negotiations to follow-on talks.[1][2][3]
2026-06-15 Oil prices fell sharply on the U.S.-Iran peace headlines; energy lagged while global risk appetite improved.[1][2][3]
2026-06-16 SpaceX post-IPO momentum continued as investors rotated around space, satellite, AI infrastructure, and mega-cap technology exposure.[1][2][3]
thematic Secondary read-through: space infrastructure, launch suppliers, satellite communications, orbital data centers, optical links, power/thermal systems, and AI infrastructure beneficiaries.[1][2][3]
geo Macro read-through: geopolitical risk premium compressed as oil/Hormuz disruption risk eased; broader equities benefited from de-escalation optimism.[1][2][3]

What each factor added this week

exact

The book added about +5.2% this week. Market (MKT) contributed +5.1% and Semiconductors (SEMI) +4.9%; Size & Liquidity (SIZE_LIQ) detracted -1.7% and stock-picking took off -3.6%.

What our tilts predicted vs what happened

exact

Our factor tilts predicted +8.8%; the book actually returned +5.2%. The -3.6% gap was stock-picking — about 29% of the move came from name-specific moves, not factor bets.

Space sleeve over the week

exact

Across 5 trading days the space sleeve registered no measurable contribution; the top sleeve added +2.4%. Despite the SpaceX IPO headlines, none of it showed up in the space names here.

Which factor turned on vs last week

exact

Versus last week, Market (MKT) swung +11.8% and Semiconductors (SEMI) +4.9% from roughly flat, and Equity Volatility (VIX) added about 1.4 points more than the prior week. Aerospace & Defense (DEF) barely moved.

How the book moved with volatility

estimate

Over the trailing 60 days the book moved slightly opposite volatility (correlation about -0.27) — a short-sample read that may not hold; this week's 5 days were too few to measure.

The defense-vs-semis barbell

exact

Over the week the Semiconductors (SEMI) factor returned +6.7% versus Aerospace & Defense (DEF) at +0.2% — the barbell tilted hard to semis, a gap of +6.5%. Growth (GROWTH) was the weakest at -1.3%.

Space names around the SpaceX IPO

estimate

No space-name move around the SpaceX IPO could be measured this week — the read returned no usable observations.

This is a 5-trading-day read, so the event-to-factor links are associations that can reverse; the exact factor-contribution figures are accounting identities.

How to read this

Stock-picking: Name-specific stock moves the factor model doesn't explain — i.e. selection, not the book's factor tilts.
Factor contribution: How much each factor exposure (e.g. Market, Semis) added to or subtracted from the week's return.
Predicted vs Actual: What the book's factor tilts implied for the week vs what it actually returned; the gap is stock-picking.
Estimate (short-sample): A co-movement read over only ~5 trading days — directional, not statistically reliable, and may not hold.

All event-factor links below are correlations observed in a 5-trading-day window; most are not statistically significant and may reverse. Tier-1 figures are exact accounting identities.

Narrative generated by claude-opus-4-8 (effort high) on 2026-06-16T21:29:20Z — all figures machine-verified against this run’s computed results.