ARKA-PHO · ANALYTICS

Arka Photonics

R² 0.663Residual 33.7%11 factors14 holdingsCross-check 77.5%

// WEEKLY SNAPSHOT · 2026-06-10 → 2026-06-16 (5 trading days)

A strong week — up about +7%, and our semiconductor and market tilts predicted nearly all of it.

The book rose about +7.1% this week, and our factor positioning explained almost the entire move — being long the market and semiconductors added the most. Stock-picking was a small drag of about 8%, so this was a factor-led gain, not a few lucky names. The backdrop was the SpaceX IPO and easing U.S.-Iran tensions, but the book holds no pure space names, so those headlines had no direct effect here.

Weekly return

+7.3%

Top factor adder

Market +3.6%

Top factor drag

Growth -1.9%

Stock-picking shareⓘ

grounded: passreproduced: passreviewed: revise6 metrics

Events this week

2026-06-11 SpaceX priced its IPO at $135/share, raising about $75B and valuing the company at roughly $1.77T.[1][2][3]
2026-06-12 SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq under SPCX; shares rallied on debut and pushed the company above a $2T market value.[1][2][3]
2026-06-16 SpaceX (SPCX) current intraday reference: last trade about $208/share; market cap about $2.74T; shares are roughly 54% above the $135 IPO price.[1][2][3]
2026-06-14 The U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary peace framework to end the war, with a formal signing expected in Switzerland.[1][2][3]
2026-06-15 The U.S.-Iran framework included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and deferring nuclear-program negotiations to follow-on talks.[1][2][3]
2026-06-15 Oil prices fell sharply on the U.S.-Iran peace headlines; energy lagged while global risk appetite improved.[1][2][3]
2026-06-16 SpaceX post-IPO momentum continued as investors rotated around space, satellite, AI infrastructure, and mega-cap technology exposure.[1][2][3]
thematic Secondary read-through: space infrastructure, launch suppliers, satellite communications, orbital data centers, optical links, power/thermal systems, and AI infrastructure beneficiaries.[1][2][3]
geo Macro read-through: geopolitical risk premium compressed as oil/Hormuz disruption risk eased; broader equities benefited from de-escalation optimism.[1][2][3]

What moved the book

exact

The book added about +7.1% this week. Being long the market contributed about +3.6% and semiconductors about +3.5%, with momentum adding roughly +2.1%; a growth tilt detracted about -1.9% and stock-picking trimmed about -0.7%.

What our tilts predicted vs what happened

exact

Our factor tilts predicted about +8.0% and the book delivered about +7.3%, leaving roughly 8% of the move to stock-picking the factors didn't capture — a clean, factor-led week.

Where the gains sat by sleeve

exact

The photonics foundries and packaging sleeve carried the week, adding about +4.9% and accounting for roughly 74% of the basket move; optical transceiver leaders added about +1.4%, while networking integration detracted about -1.5%.

Semiconductors turned on this week

exact

Semiconductors swung from about -0.2% last week to about +3.5% this week, a turn of roughly +3.7%; aerospace and defense added only about +0.1%, so the semis side of the barbell did the work.

Top and bottom names

exact

AMKR led, adding about +3.0%, with AMAT about +1.1% and AAOI about +0.7%; on the other side AVGO detracted about -0.4% and NVDA was roughly flat at about 0%.

SpaceX debut read-through

estimate

SpaceX began trading 2026-06-12, but the book holds no pure space names, so the debut contributed about 0% directly here — any read-through was indirect and would be a short-sample association that may not hold.

This is a 5-trading-day read, so any links to the SpaceX IPO or U.S.-Iran headlines are associations that can reverse; the factor-contribution figures themselves are exact accounting identities.

How to read this

Stock-picking: Name-specific stock moves the factor model doesn't explain — i.e. selection, not the book's factor tilts.
Factor contribution: How much each factor exposure (e.g. Market, Semis) added to or subtracted from the week's return.
Predicted vs Actual: What the book's factor tilts implied for the week vs what it actually returned; the gap is stock-picking.
Estimate (short-sample): A co-movement read over only ~5 trading days — directional, not statistically reliable, and may not hold.

All event-factor links below are correlations observed in a 5-trading-day window; most are not statistically significant and may reverse. Tier-1 figures are exact accounting identities.

Narrative generated by claude-opus-4-8 (effort high) on 2026-06-16T21:21:03Z — all figures machine-verified against this run’s computed results.