ARKA-ODC · ANALYTICS

Arka Orbital Data Centers

R² 0.678Residual 32.1%11 factors13 holdingsCross-check 97.7%

// WEEKLY SNAPSHOT · 2026-06-26 → 2026-07-02 (5 trading days)

A strong week: gains in Defense and stock-picking outweighed a sharp Semiconductors selloff, book up about +14.6%.

The book gained about +14.6% this week, well above the +10.5% our factor tilts predicted, with the extra piece — roughly a quarter of the move — coming from stock-picking rather than factor bets. Defense holdings added the most while Semiconductors sold off hard alongside the broader chip-index slide and Korea chip-deleveraging headlines; the two roughly offset within our barbell. Fed commentary at Sintra and a soft jobs print left the interest-rate factor largely unmoved this week.

Weekly return

+14.6%

Top factor adder

Aerospace & Defense +7.9%

Top factor drag

Semiconductors -4.9%

Stock-picking shareⓘ

28%

grounded: passreproduced: passreviewed: revise6 metrics

Events this week

2026-06-29 South Korea unveiled a major AI/semiconductor industrial strategy anchored by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; market read-through was mixed as investors weighed strategic support against future memory-supply-glut risk.[1][2][3]
2026-06-29 Asia risk tape was choppy after the prior Korea-led chip deleveraging shock; South Korea's KOSPI pared losses to close only slightly lower as the Korea chip plan and U.S.-Iran truce/talks steadied sentiment.[1][2][3]
2026-07-01 Meta reportedly began building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute capacity; this intensified AI capex ROI / overcapacity fears and pressured AI infrastructure and neocloud-exposed names.[1][2][3]
2026-07-01 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra, reiterated commitment to the Fed's 2% inflation target, emphasized independence, and pushed back against giving explicit forward guidance.[1][2][3]
2026-07-02 U.S. nonfarm payrolls slowed sharply to 57k jobs in June versus roughly 110k expected; this reduced near-term Fed-hike pressure but added to growth-slowdown concerns.[1][2][3]
2026-07-02 U.S. semiconductor selloff intensified: the SOX index fell roughly 5.4% for a second straight down day, with weakness across AI and memory-linked names; Nasdaq underperformed even as the Dow closed at a record.[1][2][3]
2026-07-02 Fed's Daly said U.S. policy was “slightly restrictive” and the next move remained uncertain; she highlighted both persistent-inflation risk and the risk that AI investment slows if returns remain unclear.[1][2][3]
2026-07-02 Korea/Asia chip deleveraging remained a key global signal: reports showed KOSPI down sharply again, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics under heavy pressure as leveraged ETF selling and concerns about large new memory investments amplified volatility.[1][2][3]
2026-07-03 Reuters Morning Bid framed the macro tape as “soft jobs, hard choices”: weaker payrolls eased dollar/rate pressure, but chip stocks remained under pressure as investors rotated away from AI-heavy exposure.[1][2][3]
2026-07-04 U.S. cash equity markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday; no new U.S. market price signal for the weekly snapshot.[1][2][3]

Where the week's return came from

exact

The book returned about +14.6% this week; Aerospace & Defense (DEF) added the most at roughly +7.9%, Semiconductors (SEMI) subtracted about -4.9%, and stock-picking not explained by any factor added roughly +4.1%, about 28% of the total.

What our tilts predicted vs what actually happened

exact

Our factor exposures predicted about +10.5% for the week; the book actually returned +14.6%, so roughly 28% of the gain came from stock-picking beyond what our tilts implied.

Semiconductors sold off hard on Jul 1-2

estimate

Semiconductors (SEMI) fell about -5.3% on Jul 1 and -3.7% on Jul 2, moves roughly 2.3x and 1.7x the size of a typical daily swing over the prior quarter — consistent with the broader chip-index selloff and Korea chip-deleveraging headlines, a short-sample read.

The Defense-vs-Semiconductors barbell this week

exact

Aerospace & Defense (DEF) added about +7.9% for the week while Semiconductors (SEMI) cost about -4.9%; the gap between the two widened to roughly +12.8% by week's end, so the barbell offset only part of the chip-sector pain.

No usable co-movement read this week

estimate

There were no overlapping data points to compare our Semiconductors and Defense exposures against their sector benchmarks this week, so we cannot report a reliable co-movement figure — a gap in the data, not a finding.

Interest-rate factor stayed quiet around Fed remarks and the jobs miss

estimate

The interest-rate factor's moves on Jul 1 and Jul 2 were well under one typical daily swing versus its recent range, consistent with a muted factor reaction to Fed commentary at Sintra and the weak jobs print, a short-sample read.

This is only a 5-trading-day window, so the event-to-factor links above are associations that could reverse; the return and contribution figures themselves are exact accounting identities for the week.

How to read this

Stock-picking: Name-specific stock moves the factor model doesn't explain — i.e. selection, not the book's factor tilts.
Factor contribution: How much each factor exposure (e.g. Market, Semis) added to or subtracted from the week's return.
Predicted vs Actual: What the book's factor tilts implied for the week vs what it actually returned; the gap is stock-picking.
Estimate (short-sample): A co-movement read over only ~5 trading days — directional, not statistically reliable, and may not hold.

All event-factor links below are correlations observed in a 5-trading-day window; most are not statistically significant and may reverse. Tier-1 figures are exact accounting identities.

Narrative generated by claude-opus-4-8 (effort high) on 2026-07-05T02:45:44Z — all figures machine-verified against this run’s computed results.