ARKA-ODC · ANALYTICS

Arka Orbital Data Centers

R² 0.674Residual 32.6%11 factors13 holdingsCross-check 97.7%

// WEEKLY SNAPSHOT · 2026-06-10 → 2026-06-16 (5 trading days)

A losing week — the pain was stock-picking in the space names, not our factor bets.

The book fell about 4.4% this week even as our factor positioning helped: being long the Market and Semiconductors added the most. Name-specific losses across the space holdings more than wiped that out, against the SpaceX IPO debut and easing U.S.-Iran tensions. What our tilts predicted was roughly +1.4%; about 80% of the actual move was stock-picking rather than anything our factor bets called.

Weekly return

-4.4%

Top factor adder

Market +4.7%

Top factor drag

Crowding -6.3%

Stock-picking shareⓘ

80%

grounded: passreproduced: passreviewed: revise6 metrics

Events this week

2026-06-11 SpaceX priced its IPO at $135/share, raising about $75B and valuing the company at roughly $1.77T.[1][2][3]
2026-06-12 SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq under SPCX; shares rallied on debut and pushed the company above a $2T market value.[1][2][3]
2026-06-16 SpaceX (SPCX) current intraday reference: last trade about $208/share; market cap about $2.74T; shares are roughly 54% above the $135 IPO price.[1][2][3]
2026-06-14 The U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary peace framework to end the war, with a formal signing expected in Switzerland.[1][2][3]
2026-06-15 The U.S.-Iran framework included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and deferring nuclear-program negotiations to follow-on talks.[1][2][3]
2026-06-15 Oil prices fell sharply on the U.S.-Iran peace headlines; energy lagged while global risk appetite improved.[1][2][3]
2026-06-16 SpaceX post-IPO momentum continued as investors rotated around space, satellite, AI infrastructure, and mega-cap technology exposure.[1][2][3]
thematic Secondary read-through: space infrastructure, launch suppliers, satellite communications, orbital data centers, optical links, power/thermal systems, and AI infrastructure beneficiaries.[1][2][3]
geo Macro read-through: geopolitical risk premium compressed as oil/Hormuz disruption risk eased; broader equities benefited from de-escalation optimism.[1][2][3]

Where the week's return came from

exact

The book returned about -4.4% on the week. Being long the Market added +4.7% and Semiconductors added +3.1%, but Crowding detracted -6.3% and stock-picking detracted -5.8% — the losses sat outside our factor bets.

What our tilts predicted vs what happened

exact

Our factor tilts pointed to about +1.4% this week, but the book actually returned -4.4%. Roughly 80% of the move was stock-picking — name-specific moves the factors don't explain.

Space sleeve detail

exact

Across 5 days, the space names together detracted about -4.9%. The Nonvolatile Memory sleeve was the lone positive at +0.8%, while the broad 'Other' sleeve — about 92% of book weight — accounted for nearly all the loss.

What turned on versus last week

exact

Versus the prior week, the Semiconductors contribution swung up to +3.1% from +0.6%, and the Market contribution flipped positive at +4.7% from -6.0%. Small-Cap weakened to -1.2%.

Defense vs semis spread (short-sample)

estimate

With the U.S.-Iran framework as backdrop, the Semiconductors factor moved closely with the week's risk-on tone (+1.3% mean) while Aerospace & Defense was roughly flat (+0.0%); the spread sat near its recent average — a short-sample read that may not hold.

Best and worst names

exact

mram led at +0.8% and amd added +0.2%; the worst were pl at -1.6% and lunr at -1.4%, both name-specific moves outside the factor bets.

This is a 5-trading-day read, so the event-to-factor links are associations that can reverse; the exact factor-contribution figures are accounting identities.

How to read this

Stock-picking: Name-specific stock moves the factor model doesn't explain — i.e. selection, not the book's factor tilts.
Factor contribution: How much each factor exposure (e.g. Market, Semis) added to or subtracted from the week's return.
Predicted vs Actual: What the book's factor tilts implied for the week vs what it actually returned; the gap is stock-picking.
Estimate (short-sample): A co-movement read over only ~5 trading days — directional, not statistically reliable, and may not hold.

All event-factor links below are correlations observed in a 5-trading-day window; most are not statistically significant and may reverse. Tier-1 figures are exact accounting identities.

Narrative generated by claude-opus-4-8 (effort high) on 2026-06-16T16:47:13Z — all figures machine-verified against this run’s computed results.