Arka Advanced Semiconductor Packaging

R² 0.896Residual 10.4%11 factors49 holdingsCross-check 98.9%

// WEEKLY SNAPSHOT · 2026-06-26 → 2026-07-02 (5 trading days)

A brutal week for chips — the semiconductor factor alone cost about 9% while the rest of the book barely moved.

The book lost about 8.4% this week, almost all of it tied to semiconductor exposure, which alone cost about 9.1% as the chip selloff (Korea chip deleveraging, Meta's AI-capex overcapacity worries) intensified. Being long the market only partly offset that, and defense provided almost no cushion for the semis pain. Stock-picking added a further, smaller drag on top of what our factor tilts predicted.

Weekly return

-8.4%

Top factor adder

Market +2.7%

Top factor drag

Semiconductors -9.1%

Stock-picking shareⓘ

grounded: passreproduced: passreviewed: revise8 metrics

Events this week

2026-06-29 South Korea unveiled a major AI/semiconductor industrial strategy anchored by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; market read-through was mixed as investors weighed strategic support against future memory-supply-glut risk.[1][2][3]
2026-06-29 Asia risk tape was choppy after the prior Korea-led chip deleveraging shock; South Korea's KOSPI pared losses to close only slightly lower as the Korea chip plan and U.S.-Iran truce/talks steadied sentiment.[1][2][3]
2026-07-01 Meta reportedly began building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute capacity; this intensified AI capex ROI / overcapacity fears and pressured AI infrastructure and neocloud-exposed names.[1][2][3]
2026-07-01 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra, reiterated commitment to the Fed's 2% inflation target, emphasized independence, and pushed back against giving explicit forward guidance.[1][2][3]
2026-07-02 U.S. nonfarm payrolls slowed sharply to 57k jobs in June versus roughly 110k expected; this reduced near-term Fed-hike pressure but added to growth-slowdown concerns.[1][2][3]
2026-07-02 U.S. semiconductor selloff intensified: the SOX index fell roughly 5.4% for a second straight down day, with weakness across AI and memory-linked names; Nasdaq underperformed even as the Dow closed at a record.[1][2][3]
2026-07-02 Fed's Daly said U.S. policy was “slightly restrictive” and the next move remained uncertain; she highlighted both persistent-inflation risk and the risk that AI investment slows if returns remain unclear.[1][2][3]
2026-07-02 Korea/Asia chip deleveraging remained a key global signal: reports showed KOSPI down sharply again, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics under heavy pressure as leveraged ETF selling and concerns about large new memory investments amplified volatility.[1][2][3]
2026-07-03 Reuters Morning Bid framed the macro tape as “soft jobs, hard choices”: weaker payrolls eased dollar/rate pressure, but chip stocks remained under pressure as investors rotated away from AI-heavy exposure.[1][2][3]
2026-07-04 U.S. cash equity markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday; no new U.S. market price signal for the weekly snapshot.[1][2][3]

Where the week's loss came from

exact

The book lost about 8.4% this week (an exact accounting of every factor and stock move). Semiconductor exposure alone cost about 9.1%, while being long the market added back about 2.7%; everything else was minor.

What our tilts predicted vs what happened

exact

Our factor positioning implied a loss of about 7.6% for the week; the book actually lost about 8.4%. The small remaining gap was stock-picking, not a factor miss.

How extreme was the chip selloff

exact

The two worst semiconductor-factor days this week were unusually large versus the past three months of daily moves — among the most negative in that stretch. A short-sample read that could look different next quarter.

Co-movement with the chip index

estimate

We couldn't compute a reliable read on how closely the book tracked the semiconductor index this week — there wasn't enough overlapping data in this window to say anything.

Did defense offset the chip pain

exact

Defense exposure contributed essentially 0% this week versus a roughly 9.1% hit from semiconductors — the defense/semis barbell gave almost no offset this time.

Biggest single-name swings

exact

asx was the top contributor, adding about +0.2%; the worst names — mu, aehr, and ttmi — each detracted roughly -0.5% to -0.7%, mostly consistent with the broader chip selloff.

AI-infrastructure names under Meta cloud pressure

estimate

We don't have coverage this week to isolate the AI-infrastructure names specifically; across the broader universe, average cumulative returns were about -4.2% over the window — context for the AI-capex overcapacity worry, not a name-specific read.

Semis exposure swung hard week over week

exact

The semiconductor factor's contribution flipped from about +5.7% last week to about -9.1% this week — a swing of roughly 14.8 percentage points. Defense, Volatility, and Rates barely changed.

This is only a 5-trading-day window, so every event-to-factor link above is an association that can reverse; the factor-contribution and P&L figures themselves are exact accounting, not estimates.

How to read this

Stock-picking: Name-specific stock moves the factor model doesn't explain — i.e. selection, not the book's factor tilts.
Factor contribution: How much each factor exposure (e.g. Market, Semis) added to or subtracted from the week's return.
Predicted vs Actual: What the book's factor tilts implied for the week vs what it actually returned; the gap is stock-picking.
Estimate (short-sample): A co-movement read over only ~5 trading days — directional, not statistically reliable, and may not hold.

All event-factor links below are correlations observed in a 5-trading-day window; most are not statistically significant and may reverse. Tier-1 figures are exact accounting identities.

Narrative generated by claude-opus-4-8 (effort high) on 2026-07-05T02:29:24Z — all figures machine-verified against this run’s computed results.