Arka Advanced Semiconductor Packaging

R² 0.899Residual 10.1%11 factors49 holdingsCross-check 98.9%

// WEEKLY SNAPSHOT · 2026-06-10 → 2026-06-16 (5 trading days)

A strong week, up about 7.6% — being long the market and semis did the heavy lifting.

The book rose about 7.6% this week, and this time our factor tilts carried it: long-market and semiconductor exposure added the most, with stock-picking chipping in another quarter of the gain. The backdrop was the SpaceX IPO and an easing US-Iran framework, but the semis sleeve, not defense, captured the lift. About 25% of the move came from name-specific picks rather than our factor bets.

Weekly return

+7.9%

Top factor adder

Market +3.2%

Top factor drag

Size & Liquidity -0.6%

Stock-picking shareⓘ

25%

grounded: passreproduced: passreviewed: pass5 metrics

Events this week

2026-06-11 SpaceX priced its IPO at $135/share, raising about $75B and valuing the company at roughly $1.77T.[1][2][3]
2026-06-12 SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq under SPCX; shares rallied on debut and pushed the company above a $2T market value.[1][2][3]
2026-06-16 SpaceX (SPCX) current intraday reference: last trade about $208/share; market cap about $2.74T; shares are roughly 54% above the $135 IPO price.[1][2][3]
2026-06-14 The U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary peace framework to end the war, with a formal signing expected in Switzerland.[1][2][3]
2026-06-15 The U.S.-Iran framework included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and deferring nuclear-program negotiations to follow-on talks.[1][2][3]
2026-06-15 Oil prices fell sharply on the U.S.-Iran peace headlines; energy lagged while global risk appetite improved.[1][2][3]
2026-06-16 SpaceX post-IPO momentum continued as investors rotated around space, satellite, AI infrastructure, and mega-cap technology exposure.[1][2][3]
thematic Secondary read-through: space infrastructure, launch suppliers, satellite communications, orbital data centers, optical links, power/thermal systems, and AI infrastructure beneficiaries.[1][2][3]
geo Macro read-through: geopolitical risk premium compressed as oil/Hormuz disruption risk eased; broader equities benefited from de-escalation optimism.[1][2][3]

What added up to the week

exact

The book gained about +7.6% on the week; long-market exposure added about +3.2% and Semiconductors (SEMI) about +3.0%, with stock-picking contributing another +2.0% and Size & Liquidity (SIZE_LIQ) detracting about -0.6%.

Tilts vs what happened

exact

What our factor tilts predicted (+5.9%) fell short of the actual +7.9%; about 25% of the move came from stock-picking, not factor bets.

Where the contribution sat by sleeve

exact

Across six sleeves the week's basket contribution totalled about +9.9%; the 'Other' sleeve carried roughly 46% of it (about +4.6%), with the advanced-packaging-related sleeves splitting the rest.

Semis, not defense, on the Iran day

exact

On the single US-Iran framework day, Semiconductors (SEMI) added about +2.1% and captured roughly 72% of its weekly contribution, while Aerospace & Defense (DEF) was flat (about 0%) — consistent with the barbell tilting toward semis (1 event day, a short-sample read that may not hold).

What turned on versus last week

exact

The swing was led by the market factor, where contribution flipped about +8.6 points week-on-week, and Semiconductors (SEMI), up about +3.2 points — together a sharp turn from last week's loss (5 days each week).

This is a 5-trading-day read, so the event-to-factor links are associations that can reverse; the exact factor-contribution figures are accounting identities.

How to read this

Stock-picking: Name-specific stock moves the factor model doesn't explain — i.e. selection, not the book's factor tilts.
Factor contribution: How much each factor exposure (e.g. Market, Semis) added to or subtracted from the week's return.
Predicted vs Actual: What the book's factor tilts implied for the week vs what it actually returned; the gap is stock-picking.
Estimate (short-sample): A co-movement read over only ~5 trading days — directional, not statistically reliable, and may not hold.

All event-factor links below are correlations observed in a 5-trading-day window; most are not statistically significant and may reverse. Tier-1 figures are exact accounting identities.

Narrative generated by claude-opus-4-8 (effort high) on 2026-06-16T21:42:29Z — all figures machine-verified against this run’s computed results.